Investment insight on the bakken landscape

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Dec
18

Trying to hang on

Posted by bakkenexpert

Our bakken plays have held on fairly well considering oil is still drifting towards $30 per barrel.   This is partly because there is hope that the OPEC cuts of 2 million barrels per day will cause a mid term reversal in the price of crude over the next few months.   Our earlier call on CLR looks pretty good with the stock up 33% (from $15 to $20) in the last few days.    We will consider getting into WLL if it goes below 30 as well.

bakken Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG 10:00AM ET 3.17 Down 0.17 Down 5.09% 34,216 284,335
WLL 10:00AM ET 32.76 Down 2.37 Down 6.75% 145,488 1,501,340
SM 10:00AM ET 19.93 Down 0.82 Down 3.95% 36,350 1,065,490
MDU 10:00AM ET 21.00 Down 0.36 Down 1.69% 215,711 1,718,310
GEOI 10:00AM ET 7.4596 Down 0.1304 Down 1.72% 14,531 113,672
BSIC.OB 9:53AM ET 0.646 Down 0.054 Down 7.71% 2,500 38,635.9
WSEG.OB 9:44AM ET 0.03 Down 0.01 Down 14.29% 65,850 141,765
CLR 10:00AM ET 19.34 Down 1.27 Down 6.16% 128,363 2,021,960
BEXP 10:00AM ET 3.82 Down 0.15 Down 3.78% 61,656 956,982
KDKN.OB 9:59AM ET 0.60 Down 0.05 Down 7.69% 4,400 95,348.4
KOG 10:00AM ET 0.3701 Up 0.0001 Up 0.03% 47,100 894,449
EOG 10:00AM ET 67.38 Down 2.22 Down 3.19% 328,205 5,068,030

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Nov
08

Bottom is forming

Posted by bakkenexpert

The market has taken a somewhat predictable yet still very volatile pattern over the last few weeks.  We see resistance when the dow approachs the 9200-9500 range and we have seen three retracements to the 8500 range.    Oil has retraced into the high 50’s twice and then bounced back into the 60’s.   Oil investors are viewing this as a positive sign and the start of a long term bottom.   Most of our bakken plays are holding steady around 30-50% higher than their 52 week low.    With a deep recession in progress and investors looking for a flight to quality,   oil as a commodity may be back in fashion soon and we may see a sector rotation back into oil.     EOG and MDU showed quite a bit of strength today as Citigroup upgraded the natural gas sector citing valuation.

Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG Nov 7 5.03 Down 0.19 Down 3.64% 161,035 346,774
WLL Nov 7 43.96 Up 0.38 Up 0.87% 1,962,646 1,380,350
SM Nov 7 22.73 Up 1.08 Up 4.99% 631,127 1,211,560
MDU Nov 7 18.61 Up 0.93 Up 5.26% 1,026,779 1,483,210
GEOI Nov 7 11.23 Up 0.28 Up 2.56% 46,722 133,912
BSIC.OB Nov 7 0.97 Down 0.03 Down 3.00% 5,500 38,635.9
WSEG.OB Nov 7 0.06 Down 0.05 Down 47.83% 725,322 447,142
CLR Nov 7 25.19 Down 0.16 Down 0.63% 1,802,370 2,219,850
BEXP Nov 7 6.04 Up 0.26 Up 4.50% 499,226 962,539
KDKN.OB Nov 7 0.60 Up 0.02 Up 3.45% 58,040 95,348.4
KOG Nov 7 0.60 Down 0.09 Down 13.04% 2,361,940 1,043,750
EOG Nov 7 79.88 Up 2.71 Up 3.51% 3,500,837 4,830,430

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Oct
17

Back in business

Posted by bakkenexpert

I have not written any articles in the past 3 weeks or so because there was simply nothing positive to write about and I was frankly sick of the gloom and doom.   I believe now with oil imploding to $70 a barrel we are really at a point where the downside is another $10-15 at MOST and we HAVE to be forming a base of some sort.   Our favorites plays WLL and CLR have been absolutely decimated and are at levels that most of us haven’t expected in our lifetimes.    At this point I am content to sink a few thousand in a basket of our favorite plays (NOG, BEXP, EOG, CLR, WLL, SM) and let it ride for the next 12 months.

bakken
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG 1:04PM ET 4.46 Up 0.63 Up 16.45% 206,748 411,215
WLL 1:05PM ET 41.46 Up 4.62 Up 12.54% 931,404 1,304,240
SM 1:05PM ET 24.02 Up 1.72 Up 7.71% 316,990 1,348,350
MDU 1:04PM ET 19.771 Up 0.321 Up 1.65% 875,003 1,330,770
GEOI 1:03PM ET 9.63 Up 0.80 Up 9.06% 68,487 136,280
BSIC.OB 12:44PM ET 0.80 Down 0.13 Down 13.98% 8,091 38,635.9
WSEG.OB 12:16PM ET 0.115 Down 0.005 Down 4.17% 114,148 727,261
CLR 1:05PM ET 26.20 Up 3.28 Up 14.31% 1,045,576 2,225,300
BEXP 1:05PM ET 7.00 Up 0.57 Up 8.86% 426,435 1,128,710
KDKN.OB 11:30AM ET 0.65 Down 0.02 Down 2.99% 11,495 95,348.4
KOG 1:04PM ET 1.15 Up 0.20 Up 21.05% 1,502,596 1,016,370
EOG 1:05PM ET 75.08 Up 5.98 Up 8.65% 3,276,782 4,797,270

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Sep
09

Still waiting and hoping

Posted by bakkenexpert

Our Bakken bucket of stocks continues to languish under the pressure of falling oil prices.   We have had a cautious stance on the sector since late June when oil started its descent.   For those who are long,  we hope that OPEC can vigorously defend the $100 a mark.   Defense of this psychological marker will allow for stabilization of our bakken plays in the long term.    For now we must wait and endure the pain.

bakken Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG 10:48AM ET 5.71 Down 0.40 Down 6.56% 72,433 533,884
WLL 10:49AM ET 75.82 Down 7.59 Down 9.10% 592,988 1,092,670
SM 10:48AM ET 36.39 Down 2.33 Down 6.02% 578,570 1,436,810
MDU 10:49AM ET 29.11 Down 1.34 Down 4.40% 558,302 1,060,430
GEOI 10:48AM ET 11.90 Down 1.52 Down 11.33% 52,552 241,614
BSIC.OB 2:51PM ET 1.57 0.00 0.00% 0 51,378.1
WSEG.OB 10:44AM ET 0.18 0.00 0.00% 29,660 814,181
CLR 10:48AM ET 35.98 Down 4.75 Down 11.66% 1,120,640 1,891,030
BEXP 10:49AM ET 10.94 Down 1.06 Down 8.83% 572,406 1,284,620
KDKN.OB 10:32AM ET 1.51 0.00 0.00% 10,600 126,373
KOG 10:48AM ET 2.16 Down 0.33 Down 13.26% 385,008 1,297,400
EOG 10:49AM ET 86.38 Down 5.91 Down 6.40% 1,698,077 3,901,030

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Aug
06

August 6, 2008 - Active Drilling Rig Report

Posted by bakkenexpert

The latest active drilling rig report shows an increase of 3 rigs from the last report that we posted about 2 weeks ago. Continental still holds the lead and increased their number to 15 from 13 and hold almost a 20% hold on total active rigs and we can expect to see continued growth as outlined in their earning call earlier this month. EOG, Marathon and Hess are close behind with 10% of the rigs count. It is interesting to note that XTO only has 1 active rig even though they made a huge 1.85 billion dollar Bakken acreage purchase earlier in the year. I would not be surprised if they ramp up their drilling program in the region in the next few months.

Operator Well Name and Number Start Date
BRIGHAM OIL & GAS LP ADIX 25 1-H 8/4/2008
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO FOX TAIL 31-10H 7/31/2008
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO COLTER 44-14H * MIRU
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO RINK 24-8H 7/27/2008
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO MIDNIGHT RUN 41-1H 7/23/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES HEGGE 43-36 WSW 7/16/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES ELSIE 1-22FRH 7/23/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES LOWE 44-9NH 7/25/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES FISCHER 11-16SH 8/1/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES GRAHAM 43-35SH 6/27/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES OSCAR 1-25H 6/20/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES ARVID 1-34H 7/1/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES SKACHENKO 1-31H 6/28/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES MORRIS 1-23H 7/29/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES SLOAN 1-17H 8/5/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES OMLID 1-7 H 8/1/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES KIRKLAND 1-33H 7/22/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES ANDREW 24-32NH * MIRU
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES MALCOM 1-29H 8/2/2008
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES OMAR 1-1H 6/1/2008
EAGLE OPERATING INC E-M FLYING H 5-9 7/30/2008
ENCORE OPERATING LP SKOGLUND 11-10H 6/24/2008
ENCORE OPERATING LP CHARLSON 44-32H 7/5/2008
EOG RESOURCES INC AUSTIN 13-08H 7/11/2008
EOG RESOURCES INC AUSTIN 22-31H 7/2/2008
EOG RESOURCES INC PARSHALL 13-26H 7/12/2008
EOG RESOURCES INC WAYZETTA 21-19H * MIRU
EOG RESOURCES INC PARSHALL 6-22H 7/29/2008
EOG RESOURCES INC WAYZETTA 6-12H 7/30/2008
EOG RESOURCES INC WAYZETTA 13-01H 8/4/2008
EOG RESOURCES INC AUSTIN 25-35H 7/15/2008
FIDELITY EXPL & PROD CO WEINMANN 11-28H 8/2/2008
FIDELITY EXPL & PROD CO LEDENE 44-5H 7/23/2008
FIDELITY EXPL & PROD CO FLADELAND 11-22H 7/30/2008
GOLDEN EYE RESOURCES, LLC STEINBERGER #1-16 7/22/2008
HEADINGTON OIL CO LLC ALKALI CREEK 44X-10 7/21/2008
HEADINGTON OIL CO LLC HARTSOCH STATE 34X-36 7/12/2008
HELIS OIL & GAS CO. LLC LEVANG 4-13H 7/11/2008
HESS CORPORATION BB-RICE-150-95- 0718H-1 * MIRU
HESS CORPORATION EN-NESET-156-94- 0706H-1 6/28/2008
HESS CORPORATION EN-PERSON-156-94- 1102H-1 7/3/2008
HESS CORPORATION ST-ANDES-151-89- 2413H-1 7/22/2008
HESS CORPORATION RS-AADNES-157-91- 2829H-1 8/1/2008
HESS CORPORATION RS-J NELSON-156-91- 0708H-1 7/14/2008
HESS CORPORATION BL-OLSON-155-96- 1003H-1 7/20/2008
HUNT OIL COMPANY CHARLIE 1-06H 7/10/2008
LUFF EXPLORATION CO GR-RRBU Z-12H 7/13/2008
MARATHON OIL CO PELTON 24-31H 7/8/2008
MARATHON OIL CO KRENZEL 34-26H 7/16/2008
MARATHON OIL CO WARDNER 14-35H 7/15/2008
MARATHON OIL CO L.R. 21-16H 7/15/2008
MARATHON OIL CO FRED HANSEN 34-8H 7/30/2008
MARATHON OIL CO OSCAR STOHLER 41-4H 8/2/2008
MARATHON OIL CO BOTTLESON 34-22H 7/24/2008
MUREX PETROLEUM CORP CHANDLER JAMES 25-36H 7/4/2008
MUREX PETROLEUM CORP SHELDON MARK 27-34H 7/10/2008
NEWFIELD PROD CO ROLFSRUD 1-32H 8/1/2008
OASIS PETRO NO AMER ERIE 44-19H 7/28/2008
PEAK NO DAK LLC FREDERICKS 5-11H 7/28/2008
PETRO HUNT LLC USA 35D-1-1H 5/6/2008
PRIMA EXPLORATION INC MESA 24-2H 7/18/2008
SAGEBRUSH RESOURCES LLC RICE ET AL 1H 8/1/2008
SAMSON RESOURCES CO SPARKS 8-162-98H 7/9/2008
SINCLAIR OIL & GAS CO NELSON 1-25H 7/20/2008
SLAWSON EXPLORATION PAYARA 1-21H 6/25/2008
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION CO CLARK 16-27H 7/6/2008
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION CO BEAR DEN FEDERAL 10-25HR 7/19/2008
SUMMIT RESOURCES INC GAP FEDERAL 3-8H 7/29/2008
TRACKER RES DEVMNT OLSON 20-1H 7/28/2008
TRACKER RES DEVMNT DRESSLER #13-1H * MIRU
WARD-WILLISTON CO SUNDAHL 20-34 7/30/2008
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP LITTLEFIELD 11-7H 6/30/2008
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP BREHM 44-5H 7/18/2008
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP NESHEIM 1-24H 7/16/2008
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP LACEY 11-10H 7/25/2008
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP ROGGENBUCK 11-25H 8/3/2008
WINDSOR ENERGY GROUP LLC WHITMORE 1-7H 7/24/2008
XTO ENERGY INC SAKAKAWEA FEDERAL 13X-35R 7/27/2008
ZENERGY INC JEAN BAPTISTE 1-11H 7/20/2008

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