Investment insight on the bakken landscape

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Jul
28

Trying to form an uptrend

Posted by bakkenexpert

Today is the first day in the last 2 weeks that our bakken plays have gained significantly even as oil stays steady around $124 per barrel. WLL and CLR lead the pack with 3-6% gains and others are close behind. The notable loser here is NOG as Barron’s wrote a negative piece on the company over the weekend but I believe NOG will bounce back as it continues it’s bakken development. NOG is still only a sub $300 million dollar company with low operating costs and a good business model which allows other companies to take on a good portion of the capital risk associated with drilling and exploration. It only takes 10 producing wells (avg 500-700 bbl per day) to justify the current market cap of $285 million so there is plenty of room for growth.

Stock Quotes:

bakken Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
WLL 11:27AM ET 90.87 Up 2.96 Up 3.37% 158,597 1,123,770
MDU 11:22AM ET 31.21 Down 0.09 Down 0.29% 236,761 1,093,810
SM 11:27AM ET 45.66 Up 1.27 Up 2.86% 423,301 1,377,520
CLR 11:27AM ET 66.45 Up 3.85 Up 6.15% 447,042 1,759,480
EOG 11:27AM ET 106.71 Up 2.66 Up 2.56% 1,129,932 3,544,840
NOG 11:22AM ET 9.10 Down 0.72 Down 7.33% 374,036 599,233
KOG 11:22AM ET 3.27 Up 0.03 Up 0.93% 258,591 1,469,600
KDKN.OB 11:27AM ET 2.06 Down 0.01 Down 0.48% 13,040 242,083
BSIC.OB 10:37AM ET 1.72 Down 0.03 Down 1.71% 2,900 88,196.9
XTO 11:27AM ET 49.44 Up 0.77 Up 1.58% 4,192,825 9,304,030

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Jul
09

Buyers helping form a base

Posted by bakkenexpert

Update: A few hours after I published this, the Dow once again tanked bringing oil stocks down as well. My fingers are crossed for tomorrow.

So I’m getting a little annoyed at using the word “Bakken” in every blog title so I’m going to stop doing that for a bit. After yesterday’s selloff in the morning, our plays rebounded later in the day to curb losses. With Iran causing geopolitical turmoil with some mid range ballistic missile tests, oil has rebounded slightly today causing an end to the violent selling of the past few days. The oil bubble has a number of things keeping it from bursting at the moment and I don’t see these dissipating any time soon:

  • Global demand is not going to go away, India and China’s economies are still experiencing substantial growth and short term hiccups have not altered the overall trend.
  • The hurricane season is upon us and we were quite lucky last year to escape relatively unscathed. 7-10 hurricanes are expected this year and if there are even 1 or 2 Category 4 or higher, significant damage may occuring taking weeks or even months to bring capacity back online
  • Africa and the Middle East are always mired in ebbs and flows of geopolitical turmoil. You would think we are all immune to this by now, but that is not the case, another pipeline burst in Middle East or rebels in Nigeria can cause a $5 spike within minutes.

The points above are rudimentary and are not a shock to anyone, but the dynamics of oil price action are really this simple. Today, our bakken plays have rebounded and if we can hold the gains the rest of today, I’ll breathe a sigh of relief and my sentiment will be improving for the upcoming weeks into earnings season.

Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
WLL 11:10AM ET 97.09 Up 1.02 Up 1.06% 213,832 1,044,900
MDU 11:10AM ET 34.24 Up 0.76 Up 2.27% 275,767 1,039,820
SM 11:10AM ET 56.45 Up 1.97 Up 3.62% 335,487 1,218,680
CLR 11:10AM ET 65.56 Up 0.20 Up 0.31% 433,356 1,630,830
EOG 11:10AM ET 116.09 Down 1.25 Down 1.07% 927,165 3,161,870
NOG 11:09AM ET 12.23 Up 0.04 Up 0.33% 98,120 608,412
KOG 11:09AM ET 3.99 Up 0.19 Up 5.00% 287,763 1,560,070
KDKN.OB 11:08AM ET 2.10 Down 0.10 Down 4.55% 11,385 244,616
BSIC.OB 11:07AM ET 1.77 Down 0.03 Down 1.67% 28,541 94,451.6
XTO 11:10AM ET 60.60 Up 0.18 Up 0.30% 1,923,685 7,184,200

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