Nov
14
Posted by bakkenexpert
After watching the dow rally to the 9600 level and then go below 8000 yesterday, we saw a furious rally of 500+ points. Oil stocks including our bakken plays rallied as well, even though oil is well under $60 per barrel. The rally however, was on no real positive news and therefore didn’t have follow through thus far today. Bakken plays still are gravitating back to their 52 week lows and buyers should be cautious buying into any rallies. Hedging is still prudent on every long purchase one would make as the market is still very volatile. All of our stocks seem to be gravitating to a PE of 10 or below and the higher multiple we enjoyed earlier in the year has waned.
| bakken |
 |
| Symbol |
Last Trade |
Change |
Volume |
Avg Vol (3m) |
| NOG |
11:02AM ET |
4.16 |
 0.17 |
3.93% |
69,504 |
331,758 |
| WLL |
11:03AM ET |
42.20 |
1.38 |
3.17% |
432,497 |
1,383,850 |
| SM |
11:03AM ET |
20.05 |
2.29 |
10.25% |
170,378 |
1,215,760 |
| MDU |
11:03AM ET |
18.96 |
1.33 |
6.55% |
382,106 |
1,519,250 |
| GEOI |
11:02AM ET |
7.86 |
1.04 |
11.69% |
38,214 |
129,927 |
| BSIC.OB |
10:24AM ET |
0.95 |
 0.04 |
4.40% |
9,500 |
38,635.9 |
| WSEG.OB |
10:07AM ET |
0.0570 |
0.0100 |
14.93% |
18,800 |
294,761 |
| CLR |
11:03AM ET |
22.42 |
2.51 |
10.07% |
354,058 |
2,188,010 |
| BEXP |
10:59AM ET |
4.7500 |
0.4300 |
8.30% |
98,238 |
961,953 |
| KDKN.OB |
10:42AM ET |
0.52 |
0.00 |
0.00% |
43,940 |
95,348.4 |
| KOG |
11:02AM ET |
0.42 |
0.03 |
7.73% |
195,610 |
1,036,910 |
| EOG |
11:03AM ET |
80.63 |
4.34 |
5.11% |
1,801,247 |
4,910,560 |
Related posts
Jul
24
Posted by bakkenexpert
| The pain continues today for many oil stocks as there is still fear that oil prices will continue to drop from its current level of $125 per barrel. If we can sustain 1 or 2 weeks of stable oil prices, then I believe the controlled “panic selling” will subside and Bakken stocks can start trading independently of other oil sector stocks. At this point, standard option strategies like selling out of the money (OOTM) puts are not advisable as we don’t know where the bottom is of this oil vacuum. We are hunkering down for the next leg here and hoping for stabilization in the next week when some of the Bakken plays report earnings. There were a few bright spots today with WLL, BSIC.OB and XTO in the green. Good Luck to all. |
|
| bakken |
|
| Symbol |
Last Trade |
Change |
Volume |
Avg Vol (3m) |
| WLL |
4:03PM ET |
84.95 |
1.31 |
1.57% |
1,194,647 |
1,115,910 |
| MDU |
4:03PM ET |
31.14 |
1.21 |
3.74% |
1,288,924 |
1,086,270 |
| SM |
4:01PM ET |
43.23 |
0.39 |
0.89% |
2,176,189 |
1,369,390 |
| CLR |
4:04PM ET |
62.08 |
0.19 |
0.31% |
2,377,113 |
1,737,110 |
| EOG |
4:00PM ET |
101.18 |
1.84 |
1.79% |
5,746,200 |
3,521,540 |
| NOG |
4:00PM ET |
10.10 |
0.51 |
4.81% |
410,358 |
594,478 |
| KOG |
4:00PM ET |
3.00 |
0.27 |
8.26% |
1,848,770 |
1,461,550 |
| KDKN.OB |
3:59PM ET |
2.03 |
0.03 |
1.46% |
108,734 |
243,183 |
| BSIC.OB |
3:50PM ET |
1.82 |
0.17 |
10.30% |
8,501 |
94,520.3 |
| XTO |
4:02PM ET |
48.78 |
0.54 |
1.12% |
55,620,781 |
9,122,790 |
Related posts
Jun
27
Posted by bakkenexpert
Ok, so I’ve been watching this one but haven’t decided to pull the trigger until now. Today Basic Earth Science Systems (BSIC.OB) issued an updated on their Bakken Well. The Paulson 14-9H well had its best day near the end of May when it produced 687 barrels of oil. During May, the well produced approximately 5,400 barrels of oil over 14 days for an average of 387 barrels of oil per day. Currently BSIC is working on stabilizing the flow and at that point the production rates can be better estimated. Basic only has a 1.2469% working interest (0.9975% net revenue interest) in the well which is operated by Marathon Oil Company (MRO) so the revenue impact is not expected to be substantial in my mind. The Paulson 14-9H well was a nice friday tidbit but nothing to put on the refrigerator. The next paragraph is what got my attention:
“In related events, the success of offset wells near our Banks Prospect, a 13,000 acre horizontal Bakken project, has dramatically enhanced the viability of our acreage. As a result, the Company and its partners have been approached by several companies wishing to acquire a portion of Basic’s acreage. While some offers are enticing, at this point, no agreements have been made. If we were to enter into an agreement, in addition to being fairly compensated for our investment and maintaining as much of our interest as possible, our objective would be to increase the effectiveness of the original joint venture agreement so that development could not be stalled by a handful of non-consenting owners.”
I think this is a VERY positive development for BSIC. Typically for a company as small as BSIC, it is difficult to scale operations and fund exploration and production. It appears they are open to divesting some of their prime Bakken acreage for NRI in return as well as compensation for the land. For a company with a tiny 40 million dollar market cap, this could be huge in terms of revenue and profit. A single lucrative deal could propel the company to a low single digit PE.
Disclosure: We own shares of BSIC.OB as of June 27, 2008. View our Disclaimer here
Related posts
Jun
25
Posted by bakkenexpert
Yesterday and this morning, A number of Bakken Stocks are under quite a bit of pressure as an unexpected jump in the nation’s supplies of fuel and oil reported by the Energy Department fueled speculation that US demand is going to continue to drop and the oil bubble may burst.
In its weekly inventory report, the department’s Energy Information Administration said crude oil supplies rose slightly last week. Analysts surveyed by research firm Platts had expected a 1.7 million barrel decline.
In early morning trading, the XLE ETF is down over $2 and a number of Bakken stocks are facing intense selling pressure with many stocks off 5% or more. The next few weeks for Bakken stocks are going to be extremely volatile and we could see a trading range of 15% on these stocks. We are still bullish long term but are hedging here to mitigate risk. Remember that many of these stocks gapped up in a short time and may need some breathing room over the next few weeks. Investors will need to rely on good E&P news from the Bakken region to provide support.
| Symbol |
Last Trade |
Change |
Volume |
Avg Vol (3m) |
| CLR |
11:15AM ET |
63.89 |
3.35 |
4.98% |
560,824 |
1,468,790 |
| EOG |
11:15AM ET |
125.50 |
4.95 |
3.79% |
824,142 |
2,955,830 |
| NOG |
11:14AM ET |
14.00 |
1.18 |
7.77% |
382,696 |
535,466 |
| KOG |
11:14AM ET |
4.51 |
0.05 |
1.10% |
640,015 |
1,354,010 |
| KDKN.OB |
11:15AM ET |
2.62 |
0.00 |
0.00% |
54,970 |
257,956 |
| BSIC.OB |
11:10AM ET |
2.56 |
0.15 |
5.54% |
78,298 |
80,231.8 |
| LEI |
11:13AM ET |
4.3001 |
0.1499 |
3.37% |
48,355 |
158,489 |
| XTO |
11:15AM ET |
66.17 |
3.92 |
5.59% |
4,004,017 |
6,440,690 |
| WLL |
11:15AM ET |
98.19 |
4.39 |
4.28% |
193,786 |
883,147 |
Related posts
Jun
10
Posted by bakken
Today’s spiraling market and negative market sentiment put heavy pressure on the Bakken related stocks after solid runups during the last 2 months. Light, sweet crude for July delivery fell $3.04 to settle at $131.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In addition, Fed Chair Bernanke put out some strong words about inflation which strengthen the dollar and added additional pressure on oil stocks.
For the better part of the day, major bakken players such as BEXP and CLR were showing 6% and 12% losses respectively, but were able to claw back in the last 2 hours of the trading session to pare their losses in half as shown in the chart below:
Is this the beginning a negative downtrend for Bakken stocks? Not necessarily, the volume was fairly light during the course of the day and picked up considerably during the last hour of trading where the stocks recovered. The sector was due for a pullback after its recent run and we should expect more capitulation over the next few weeks that may provide better entry points for long term holders. We still like the mid term outlook (2-6 months) and expect continued growth as long as oil stays above $115 a barrel. BSIC, BXP, NOG, KDKN, KOG are all small cap stocks and have the potential to outpace their larger counterparts as they are less susceptible to short term gyrations in the price of oil and more affected by their ability to grow their respective fifedoms.
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