Jan
02
Posted by bakken
It has been a banner year for companies operating in the Bakken region. Brigham Exploration (BEXP: 0.00 N/A) , Northern Gas & Oil (NOG: 17.18 -0.58%) saw gains over 100% and American Oil & Gas was acquired by Hess corporation (HES: 44.60 -1.22%). Bigger players such as Continental Resources (CLR: 71.31 +0.62%) and Whiting Oil (WLL: 44.20 -0.20%)] also rebounded in a big way and are within striking distance of all time highs in 2011.
| Symbol |
Trade |
Market Cap |
P/E |
PEG Ratio |
Pct from Yr Low |
| NOG |
27.21 |
1.37B |
132.09 |
3.16 |
 159.89% |
| HES |
76.54 |
25.14B |
10.33 |
0.71 |
57.17% |
| CLR |
58.85 |
10.01B |
37.99 |
1.38 |
62.26% |
| WLL |
117.19 |
6.86B |
30.64 |
1.68 |
87.03% |
| BEXP |
27.24 |
3.18B |
92.34 |
1.29 |
116.53% |
| EOG |
91.41 |
23.22B |
45.80 |
5.93 |
7.01% |
| SM |
58.93 |
3.72B |
23.51 |
-28.62 |
91.95% |
| GEOI |
22.21 |
438.05M |
21.19 |
N/A |
96.72%
|
So what will 2011 bring for the Bakken region? Of course, specific predictions are rarely accurate but in the spirit of the new year we will give it our best shot. Underlying assumptions in our predictions are that oil prices will sustain over $90 per barrel over the majority of 2011 and that the overall domestic and global economies will continue a recovery albeit slow and sometimes painful.
PREDICTION #1 - Brigham Exploration (BEXP: 0.00 N/A) gets acquired by a large O&G in the region such as EOG.
It is no secret that Brigham Exploration is one of the best executing pure plays in the Bakken Region. Their expertise in multi-stage fracking is a boon for a larger player with untapped acreage. They may look expensive on paper to some with a forward PE around 30, but an acquisition would be focused around operational synergy with Brigham’s drilling prowess, not necessarily looking at their current revenue numbers.
PREDICTION #2 - PetroBakken goes up 50% in 2011 .
Although, most US based Bakken players did well in 2010, PetroBakken (PBN on TSX), just across the border did not fare as well. Declining production and sub-par execution related to a number of factors such as bad weather caused many big investors to shun this stock for most of 2010. PetroBakken has no shortage of opportunity with 210,000 net undeveloped acres with 1,000+ locations in the Bakken region “North of the Border”. The company will put upwards of 20 rigs into action in 2011 and has a focus on Bilateral well drilling under their “Bakken 3.0″ strategy which should increase Bakken boepd significantly over the next 12 months. More about their strategy can be found on their latest presentation posted in Dec 2010
PREDICTION #3 - Continental Resources (CLR: 71.31 +0.62%) tops $75 per share in 2011 .
Continental has banked a lot on their ECO-pad strategy in the latter half of 2010 and that strategy is already paying dividends. Continental Resources has nearly doubled its production from the North Dakota Bakken during 2010, growing from an average of 8,384 (BOE) per day during the 4th quarter of 2009 to 15,000+ BOE per day in Q3 2010. We expect production to top 21,000 BOE per day by the end of 2011. With seemingly few factors that can stop a 30% sustained growth rate for CLR, a move above $75 seems quite probable in 2011.
PREDICTION #4 - Bakken drilling continues to surpass estimates and will yield record production in 2011
The growth train that is the Bakken was derailed slightly in 2008 amidst the economic crisis but came back with bang in 2010. North Dakota is currently is pumping about 350,000 barrels of crude per day and was on pace to produce about 110 million barrels in 2010, up from about 80 million in 2009. In 2011, we expect the following
- Record production in excess of 140 million BOE in 2011
- Well completion time averaging 23 days in 2011 (was over 60 days 2 years ago)
- USGS revision that outlines more than 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Bakken region
- 1900 new wells in North Dakota (200% growth from 2010)
We’ll check back in a few months to see how our predictions have fared, but based on the solid growth in 2010, we are not worried about what we’ll find. Have a great start to 2011! Look for more insight in the coming days on new plays in the region
Related posts
Sep
09
Posted by bakkenexpert
Our last report 3 months ago yielded 121 active drilling rigs. The capex constrains seem to be lifting across the sector as the number of rigs is up a whopping 18% to 143 total rigs. We have seen steady increases across the board of all the major Bakken players such as Continental Resources (CLR: 71.31 +0.62%) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL: 44.20 -0.20%) which both increased their presence by 2 rigs. American Oil & Gas (AEZ: 0.00 N/A) a small cap player increased from 2 to 4 rigs. AEZ in the process of being acquired by Hess (HES: 44.60 -1.22%) which already has a formidable 9 rigs in the region. With the acquisition, Hess will be thrown in with the top players in the region. Brigham Exploration has had a stable 4-6 rigs in the region throughout 2010. Brigham’s followers however know that its not the number of rigs that matter, but the quality of the well. Brigham has made a name for itself squeezing every ounce of production from its wells. After hours today, they released some more promising news on some recent exploits:
Brigham Exploration Company announced the completion of four Bakken wells in its Ross and Rough Rider project areas. To date, Brigham has completed 32 long lateral high frac stage wells in North Dakota with an average early 24-hour peak flow back rate of 2,643 barrels of oil equivalent. In the Ross project area in Mountrail County, North Dakota, Brigham announced the completion of the Wright 4-33 #1H, which was completed with 38 fracture stimulation stages, at an early 24-hour peak flow back rate of 3,660 barrels of oil equivalent (3,097 barrels of oil and 3.38 MMcf).
We’ll have more about Brigham in an upcoming article. Until next time, we’ll keep drillin’ for more bakken news.
Active Drilling Rigs - September 2010
| Operator |
Well Name and Number |
Current Location |
Start Date |
| ABRAXAS PETROLM CORP. |
RAVIN 26-35-1H |
NENE 26-150N-97W |
7/25/10 |
| AMERICAN OIL & GAS INC |
OLSON 15-36H |
SWSE 36-157N-98W |
8/12/10 |
| AMERICAN OIL & GAS INC |
BERGSTROM 2-27H |
NWNE 27-156N-98W |
8/15/10 |
| AMERICAN OIL & GAS INC |
HODENFIELD 15-23H |
SWSE 23-157N-98W |
8/20/10 |
| AMERICAN OIL & GAS INC |
REID 3-3H |
LOT3 3-157N-97W |
* MIRU |
| ANSCHUTZ EXPL CORP |
JAEGER STATE 1-34-27H-144-97 |
SWSE 34-144N-97W |
8/10/10 |
| ANSCHUTZ EXPL CORP |
DENNIS KADRMAS 1-9-4H-143-96 |
SWSE 9-143N-96W |
7/30/10 |
| ANSCHUTZ EXPL CORP |
EVELYN KARY 1-15-22H-144-97 |
NWNE 15-144N-97W |
8/14/10 |
| ANSCHUTZ EXPL CORP |
STATE 1-36H-156-98 |
NWNE 36-156N-98W |
7/24/10 |
| BAYTEX ENERGY USA LTD |
LARSON 3-162-99H |
SESE 3-162N-99W |
9/6/10 |
| BAYTEX ENERGY USA LTD |
HAUGLAND 4-162-99H |
SESE 4-162N-99W |
8/15/10 |
| BRIGHAM OIL & GAS LP |
BROWN 30-19 1-H |
SWSE 30-156N-93W |
9/6/10 |
| BRIGHAM OIL & GAS LP |
ROGER SORENSON 8-5 1H |
SWSE 8-155N-92W |
9/5/10 |
| BRIGHAM OIL & GAS LP |
BRAKKEN 30-31 1-H |
SENE 30-154N-100W |
8/1/10 |
| BRIGHAM OIL & GAS LP |
BRAD OLSON 9-16 3H |
NENW 9-154N-102W |
8/16/10 |
| BRIGHAM OIL & GAS LP |
M. MACKLIN 15-22 1H |
NENW 15-155N-101W |
8/30/10 |
| BRIGHAM OIL & GAS LP |
STATE 36-1 2H |
NWNE 36-155N-100W |
8/1/10 |
| BTA OIL PRODUCERS LLC |
20711 BIBLER 67 1-H |
NENW 6-154N-99W |
9/7/10 |
| BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
CONCORD 24-10H |
SESW 10-147N-97W |
8/8/10 |
| BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
KEENE 14-35H |
SWSW 35-147N-97W |
8/22/10 |
| BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
TILTON 34-7H |
SWSE 7-147N-97W |
7/31/10 |
| BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
PHANTOM SHIP 24-22H |
SWSW 22-152N-97W |
8/28/10 |
| CIRQUE RESOURCES LC |
PICK AXE 19-4H |
NWNW 19-160N-90W |
9/6/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
RIVERS BEND 21-16SH |
NENW 16-130N-106W |
9/1/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
TANBERG 1-4H |
LOT 3 4-161N-95W |
9/8/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
RAYMO 2-30H |
SESE 19-161N-95W |
8/23/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
TANGSRUD 2-1H |
NWNW 1-160N-96W |
8/13/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
FARVER 1-29H |
NENW 29-160N-96W |
8/17/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
DALIN 1-4H |
NWNE 4-160N-96W |
8/3/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
KELLING 2-4H |
SESW 4-145N-96W |
7/3/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
BONNEVILLE 2-23H |
NWNW 23-146N-96W |
8/28/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
MEADOWLARK 2-6H |
SWSE 31-146N-95W |
8/30/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
NADIA 1-30H |
SESW 30-146N-96W |
8/31/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
BOXCAR BUTTE SOUTH FEDERAL 1-26H |
SWSW 26-148N-102W |
* MIRU |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
ROLFSRUD 1-11H |
SWSE 11-151N-97W |
7/19/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
ORF 1-17H |
NENW 17-146N-98W |
8/1/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
HENDRICKSON 2-36H |
SWSW 36-153N-94W |
8/16/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
SANDIE 1-28H |
NWNE 28-151N-97W |
9/1/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
HOROB 1-14H |
SWSE 14-155N-104W |
8/2/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
GRONFUR 1-28H |
NWNE 28-155N-98W |
9/3/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
MYRTLE 4-7H |
SWSW 7-159N-95W |
9/5/10 |
| CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
NADEAU 1-35H |
SENE 35-155N-104W |
9/5/10 |
| CORNERSTONE NAT RES LLC |
LINDA HINDS 8-7H |
SESE 7-161N-90W |
8/24/10 |
| ENCORE OPERATING LP |
FRANCHUK 34-19NWH |
SWSE 19-145N-95W |
8/29/10 |
| ENCORE OPERATING LP |
FETTIG 24-22H |
SESW 22-149N-94W |
8/18/10 |
| ENCORE OPERATING LP |
JOSEPH 11-1H |
LOT4 1-152N-102W |
8/3/10 |
| ENERGY EQUITY CO |
DVORAK-SEIDL 1-27-3C |
SESE 27-145N-97W |
8/25/10 |
| ENERPLUS RES USA CORP |
ETHAN HALL 6B-31-30-1H |
NENW 6-147N-93W |
8/29/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
MANDAREE 5-16H |
NWNW 16-149N-94W |
8/25/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
RIVERVIEW 01-32H |
NWNW 32-152N-94W |
8/6/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
RUUD 1-18H |
LOT 1 18-152N-89W |
9/2/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
JAMES HILL 5-24H |
SESE 24-157N-91W |
8/22/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
LIBERTY 10-36H |
NWNW 36-151N-91W |
8/27/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
WAYZETTA 103-06H |
SESE 6-153N-90W |
9/1/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
SIDONIA 36-2722H |
SESW 27-158N-90W |
8/20/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
LIBERTY 3-14H |
SESE 14-151N-91W |
8/21/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
WAYZETTA 143-31H |
SWSE 31-153N-90W |
8/31/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
CLEARWATER 102-0506H |
SENE 5-157N-90W |
9/4/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
SIDONIA 23-2017H |
SESE 20-158N-90W |
9/8/10 |
| EOG RESOURCES INC |
LEBRON 1-01H |
SESE 1-155N-104W |
8/21/10 |
| FIDELITY EXPL & PROD CO |
LYNN 19-20-29H |
NWNE 19-154N-92W |
8/28/10 |
| HELIS OIL & GAS CO. LLC |
HENDERSON FEDERAL 4-26/35H |
NWNW 26-150N-95W |
9/3/10 |
| HESS CORPORATION |
AV-SCHWARTZ-163-93- 0211H-1 |
Lot 1 2-163N-93W |
9/4/10 |
| HESS CORPORATION |
AN-PROSSER-152-95- 0211H-1 |
LOT3 2-152N-95W |
7/25/10 |
| HESS CORPORATION |
AN-BRENNA-153-94- 3130H-1 |
SESW 31-153N-94W |
8/30/10 |
| HESS CORPORATION |
RS-NELSON FARMS A-156-90- 2829H-2 |
NWSW 27-156N-90W |
7/26/10 |
| HESS CORPORATION |
EN-WILL TRUST A-157-94- 2734H-3 |
NENW 27-157N-94W |
8/20/10 |
| HESS CORPORATION |
EN-DOLAN-157-94- 2833H-1 |
SWSE 21-157N-94W |
8/4/10 |
| HESS CORPORATION |
EN-ABRAHAMSON-155-93- 3019H-3 |
SWSE 30-155N-93W |
* MIRU |
| HESS CORPORATION |
EN-HEINLE-156-94- 2536H-2 |
NENE 25-156N-94W |
9/3/10 |
| HESS CORPORATION |
RS-NELSON A-156-90- 2120H-1 |
NESE 21-156N-90W |
8/3/10 |
| HUNT OIL COMPANY |
HALLIDAY 1-11-2H 1 |
SWSW 11-146N-93W |
8/25/10 |
| HUNT OIL COMPANY |
PALERMO 1-5-34H |
SWSW 5-156N-90W |
8/12/10 |
| KODIAK OIL & GAS (USA) INC |
TWO SHIELDS BUTTE 14-21-33-15H |
SESW 21-149N-92W |
8/4/10 |
| KODIAK OIL & GAS (USA) INC |
KOALA 9-5-6-5H |
NESE 5-151N-99W |
9/6/10 |
| LUFF EXPLORATION CO |
JETT B-28H |
NWNE 28-129N-101W |
9/4/10 |
| MARATHON OIL CO |
T KUPPER USA 34-11H |
SWSE 11-146N-95W |
8/27/10 |
| MARATHON OIL CO |
EDWARD DARWIN 14-35H |
SWSW 35-145N-96W |
8/30/10 |
| MARATHON OIL CO |
DARCY DIRKACH 14-12H |
SWSW 12-144N-95W |
8/24/10 |
| MARATHON OIL CO |
TAT USA 34-22H |
SESW 22-151N-94W |
8/26/10 |
| MARATHON OIL CO |
QUALE USA 31-20H |
NWNE 20-152N-93W |
8/26/10 |
| MARATHON OIL CO |
LUTHER USA 11-16H |
NESW 9-150N-93W |
8/13/10 |
| MUREX PETROLEUM CORP |
JOANN MARIE 13-24H |
NWNW 13-156N-96W |
8/6/10 |
| MUREX PETROLEUM CORP |
VENTURA 11-2H |
SWSW 11-156N-96W |
8/12/10 |
| NEWFIELD PROD CO |
URSUS 1-20H |
NENW 20-148N-97W |
7/21/10 |
| NEWFIELD PROD CO |
CHARLOTTE 150-98-17-20-1H |
NENE 17-150N-98W |
7/18/10 |
| NEWFIELD PROD CO |
JOHNSRUD 150-98-6-7-1H |
NENW 6-150N-98W |
7/29/10 |
| NEWFIELD PROD CO |
CALIENTE 1-9H |
NWNE 9-156N-99W |
8/28/10 |
| NORTH PLAINS ENERGY LLC |
AARESTAD 4-34H |
NWNW 34-160N-97W |
9/2/10 |
| OASIS PETRO NO AMER |
MERRITT 5693 11-24H |
NWNW 24-156N-93W |
8/13/10 |
| OASIS PETRO NO AMER |
ODIN JORGENSON 5502 44-8H |
SWSE 8-155N-102W |
8/22/10 |
| OASIS PETRO NO AMER |
KJORSTAD 5300 24-22H |
SENE 22-153N-100W |
8/1/10 |
| OASIS PETRO NO AMER |
ELLIS 5602 12-17H |
NENW 17-156N-102W |
8/14/10 |
| OIL FOR AMERICA |
WOLF 29-1 |
SWSE 29-139N-95W |
9/6/10 |
| PEAK NO DAK LLC |
BIRON 20-24H |
SWSE 20-149N-92W |
* MIRU |
| PETRO HUNT LLC |
TANDE 159-94-29C-20-3H |
SWSW 29-159N-94W |
8/14/10 |
| PETRO HUNT LLC |
FREDRICKSON 160-94-33C-28-1H |
SESW 33-160N-94W |
8/20/10 |
| PETRO HUNT LLC |
FORT BERTHOLD 148-94-35D-26-1H |
SWSE 35-148N-94W |
6/24/10 |
| PETRO HUNT LLC |
FORT BERTHOLD 152-94-22D-15-1H |
SESE 22-152N-94W |
8/4/10 |
| PETRO HUNT LLC |
SORENSON 152-96-24C-13-2H |
SWSW 24-152N-96W |
8/27/10 |
| PRIMA EXPLORATION INC |
GUNNISON 11-31H |
NWNW 31-161N-90W |
9/2/10 |
| QEP ENERGY CO |
MHA 1-29-30H-150-90 |
NENE 32-150N-90W |
8/20/10 |
| SALTWATER DISPOSAL OF ND |
SDND 1 |
NENE 26-156N-92W |
9/2/10 |
| SAMSON RESOURCES CO |
ALMOS FARMS 1-12-162-99HOR |
CNE 1-162N-99W |
9/6/20 |
| SAMSON RESOURCES CO |
HANSON 17-20-163-98H |
CNW 17-163N-98W |
8/5/10 |
| SAMSON RESOURCES CO |
IMPALA 23-14-163-98H |
NWNE 26-163N-98W |
9/4/10 |
| SINCLAIR OIL & GAS CO |
BIGHORN 1-6H |
SESW 31-147N-97W |
7/10/10 |
| SINCLAIR OIL & GAS CO |
MARTENS 1-5H |
LOT 4 5-154N-92W |
8/29/10 |
| SLAWSON EXPLORATION |
MAVERICK FEDERAL 1-14 |
SESE 14-147N-105W |
7/29/10 |
| SLAWSON EXPLORATION |
WATER MOCCASIN 1-34H |
SESE 27-151N-92W |
* MIRU |
| SLAWSON EXPLORATION |
JAGUAR 1-32H |
NWNE 32-151N-92W |
8/30/10 |
| SLAWSON EXPLORATION |
MUSKRAT FEDERAL 1-28-33H |
NENW 28-151N-92W |
9/7/10 |
| SLAWSON EXPLORATION |
SUBMARINER FEDERAL 1-23-24H |
NWNW 23-151N-92W |
9/6/10 |
| SM ENERGY CO |
JORGENSON 1X-30H |
NENE 30-149N-95W |
8/25/10 |
| SM ENERGY CO |
FOSSUM 15-35H |
SWSE 35-153N-101W |
8/30/10 |
| TRACKER RES DEVMNT |
BICE 6-31-1TH |
LOT7 6-147N-96W |
7/31/10 |
| TRACKER RES DEVMNT |
GUDMUNSEN 27-1H |
NENE 27-149N-100W |
8/13/10 |
| TRACKER RES DEVMNT |
SCANLAN 17-1TH |
NWNW 17-153N-98W |
8/10/10 |
| WESCO OPERATING INC |
FEDERAL 12-20 |
SWNW 20-145N-103W |
* MIRU |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
TEDDY 44-13TFH |
SESE 13-142N-101W |
7/25/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
TEDDY 44-30TFH |
SESE 30-142N-100W |
7/22/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
MOSSER 11-27TFH |
NWNW 27-145N-104W |
8/20/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
ROGGENBUCK 14-25H |
SWSW 25-153N-93W |
8/18/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
CVANCARA 11-14H |
NWNW 14-155N-93W |
8/28/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
LACEY 12-10H |
SWNW 10-152N-92W |
7/21/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
CURREN 12-14H |
SWNW 14-153N-93W |
9/6/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
ANDERSON 21-7H |
NENW 7-154N-92W |
8/23/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
BREHM 12-27H |
SWNW 27-153N-92W |
8/17/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
MALLARD STATE 44-16TFH |
SESE 16-154N-91W |
8/24/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
STROBECK 12-1H |
SWNW 1-154N-92W |
8/27/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
NESS 43-21H |
NESE 21-154N-91W |
8/29/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
JONES 12-8H |
SWNW 8-154N-91W |
8/20/10 |
| WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
MANN 21-18TFH |
NENW 18-140N-98W |
8/28/10 |
| XTO ENERGY INC |
DAKOTA FEDERAL 41X-16 |
NENE 16-148N-97W |
8/24/10 |
| XTO ENERGY INC |
WHITE FEDERAL 34X-34 |
SWSE 34-154N-96W |
9/3/10 |
| XTO ENERGY INC |
ROEDESKE FEDERAL 12X-21 |
SWNW 21-148N-104W |
7/29/10 |
| XTO ENERGY INC |
SUNDHAGEN 31X-3 |
LOT2 3-157N-96W |
8/27/10 |
| XTO ENERGY INC |
CARTER 14X-12 |
SWSW 12-154N-96W |
8/25/10 |
| ZAVANNA LLC |
MARLIN 27-34 1H |
NWNW 27-154N-99W |
8/21/10 |
| ZENERGY INC |
Rella 18-19H |
NENW 18-153N-103W |
8/22/10 |
| ZENERGY OPERATING CO LLC |
DAKOTA-3 SKUNK CREEK 1-12H |
LOT3 1-148N-93W |
* MIRU |
| ZENERGY OPERATING CO LLC |
DAKOTA-3 KYW 27-34H |
NWNW 27-150N-94W |
8/7/10 |
| ZENERGY OPERATING CO LLC |
DAKOTA-3 FBIR 13-24H |
NENW 13-150N-92W |
7/24/10 |
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