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Archive for the ‘Daily Roundup’ Category

Dec
18

Trying to hang on

Posted by bakkenexpert

Our bakken plays have held on fairly well considering oil is still drifting towards $30 per barrel.   This is partly because there is hope that the OPEC cuts of 2 million barrels per day will cause a mid term reversal in the price of crude over the next few months.   Our earlier call on CLR looks pretty good with the stock up 33% (from $15 to $20) in the last few days.    We will consider getting into WLL if it goes below 30 as well.

bakken Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG 10:00AM ET 3.17 Down 0.17 Down 5.09% 34,216 284,335
WLL 10:00AM ET 32.76 Down 2.37 Down 6.75% 145,488 1,501,340
SM 10:00AM ET 19.93 Down 0.82 Down 3.95% 36,350 1,065,490
MDU 10:00AM ET 21.00 Down 0.36 Down 1.69% 215,711 1,718,310
GEOI 10:00AM ET 7.4596 Down 0.1304 Down 1.72% 14,531 113,672
BSIC.OB 9:53AM ET 0.646 Down 0.054 Down 7.71% 2,500 38,635.9
WSEG.OB 9:44AM ET 0.03 Down 0.01 Down 14.29% 65,850 141,765
CLR 10:00AM ET 19.34 Down 1.27 Down 6.16% 128,363 2,021,960
BEXP 10:00AM ET 3.82 Down 0.15 Down 3.78% 61,656 956,982
KDKN.OB 9:59AM ET 0.60 Down 0.05 Down 7.69% 4,400 95,348.4
KOG 10:00AM ET 0.3701 Up 0.0001 Up 0.03% 47,100 894,449
EOG 10:00AM ET 67.38 Down 2.22 Down 3.19% 328,205 5,068,030

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Dec
04

A good time to step in?

Posted by bakkenexpert

So oil has continued its descent to the mid 40’s but oil stocks have been fairly rangebound for the last 2 months with XLE bouncing between 40 and 50.     Bakken stocks have been particularly hit hard when compared to other oil stocks because of a number of investor concerns including recovery costs,  drilling costs and loss of any premium associated with growth in the Bakken region.     Of utmost concern is the recover costs per barrel in the bakken region.  There is no exact number, but there have been published reports that it costs upwards of 5 million to establish a productive well in the region and that production costs are anywhere from $30-50 per barrel.     If this is true,  some of the Bakken players can expect to see their margins squeezed in upcoming quarters but in terms of the pps,  it looks to be baked into the stocks as most are down over 75% year to date.     I’m content that CLR doesn’t have much down side from its current price around $15 and if so,  who cares at this point.    I’ll sell covered calls at a strike of 17.5 or 20 until I make a nice profit or the stock just “goes away”.    On another note, below we can tell that most of the short interest is out of these stocks by now and our bakken plays are really just tracking with the price of oil at this point.  In other words,  don’t expect any of these to gap on the upside on news specific to the company in the short term.    Supply and demand will account for 80% of the price movement for the forseeable future.

Fundamentals Edit
Symbol Last Trade P/E Pct from Yr High Short Ratio
NOG 2:01PM ET 2.75 N/A Down 83.23% 9.5
WLL 2:01PM ET 29.46 4.16 Down 73.79% 1.1
SM 2:01PM ET 17.56 4.46 Down 73.22% 2.9
MDU 2:01PM ET 19.82 9.12 Down 43.92% 1.1
GEOI 1:48PM ET 6.59 5.08 Down 77.34% 3
BSIC.OB 12:01PM ET 0.75 3.93 Down 75.33% N/A
WSEG.OB 12:35PM ET 0.05 N/A N/A% -
CLR 2:01PM ET 15.74 7.12 Down 81.22% 1.7
BEXP 2:01PM ET 2.77 6.35 Down 84.86% 5.6
KDKN.OB 1:11PM ET 0.60 N/A Down 83.74% -
KOG 1:57PM ET 0.4359 N/A Down 92.07% 1.6
EOG 2:01PM ET 71.70 7.69 Down 50.55% 1.4

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Nov
14

Groundhog day returns

Posted by bakkenexpert

After watching the dow rally to the 9600 level and then go below 8000 yesterday,  we saw a furious rally of 500+ points.   Oil stocks including our bakken plays rallied as well, even though oil is well under $60 per barrel.   The rally however, was on no real positive news and therefore didn’t have follow through thus far today.    Bakken plays still are gravitating back to their 52 week lows and buyers should be cautious buying into any rallies.    Hedging is still prudent on every long purchase one would make as the market is still very volatile.    All of our stocks seem to be gravitating to a PE of 10 or below and the higher multiple we enjoyed earlier in the year has waned.

bakken Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG 11:02AM ET 4.16 Down 0.17 Down 3.93% 69,504 331,758
WLL 11:03AM ET 42.20 Down 1.38 Down 3.17% 432,497 1,383,850
SM 11:03AM ET 20.05 Down 2.29 Down 10.25% 170,378 1,215,760
MDU 11:03AM ET 18.96 Down 1.33 Down 6.55% 382,106 1,519,250
GEOI 11:02AM ET 7.86 Down 1.04 Down 11.69% 38,214 129,927
BSIC.OB 10:24AM ET 0.95 Up 0.04 Up 4.40% 9,500 38,635.9
WSEG.OB 10:07AM ET 0.0570 Down 0.0100 Down 14.93% 18,800 294,761
CLR 11:03AM ET 22.42 Down 2.51 Down 10.07% 354,058 2,188,010
BEXP 10:59AM ET 4.7500 Down 0.4300 Down 8.30% 98,238 961,953
KDKN.OB 10:42AM ET 0.52 0.00 0.00% 43,940 95,348.4
KOG 11:02AM ET 0.42 Down 0.03 Down 7.73% 195,610 1,036,910
EOG 11:03AM ET 80.63 Down 4.34 Down 5.11% 1,801,247 4,910,560

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Nov
08

Bottom is forming

Posted by bakkenexpert

The market has taken a somewhat predictable yet still very volatile pattern over the last few weeks.  We see resistance when the dow approachs the 9200-9500 range and we have seen three retracements to the 8500 range.    Oil has retraced into the high 50’s twice and then bounced back into the 60’s.   Oil investors are viewing this as a positive sign and the start of a long term bottom.   Most of our bakken plays are holding steady around 30-50% higher than their 52 week low.    With a deep recession in progress and investors looking for a flight to quality,   oil as a commodity may be back in fashion soon and we may see a sector rotation back into oil.     EOG and MDU showed quite a bit of strength today as Citigroup upgraded the natural gas sector citing valuation.

Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG Nov 7 5.03 Down 0.19 Down 3.64% 161,035 346,774
WLL Nov 7 43.96 Up 0.38 Up 0.87% 1,962,646 1,380,350
SM Nov 7 22.73 Up 1.08 Up 4.99% 631,127 1,211,560
MDU Nov 7 18.61 Up 0.93 Up 5.26% 1,026,779 1,483,210
GEOI Nov 7 11.23 Up 0.28 Up 2.56% 46,722 133,912
BSIC.OB Nov 7 0.97 Down 0.03 Down 3.00% 5,500 38,635.9
WSEG.OB Nov 7 0.06 Down 0.05 Down 47.83% 725,322 447,142
CLR Nov 7 25.19 Down 0.16 Down 0.63% 1,802,370 2,219,850
BEXP Nov 7 6.04 Up 0.26 Up 4.50% 499,226 962,539
KDKN.OB Nov 7 0.60 Up 0.02 Up 3.45% 58,040 95,348.4
KOG Nov 7 0.60 Down 0.09 Down 13.04% 2,361,940 1,043,750
EOG Nov 7 79.88 Up 2.71 Up 3.51% 3,500,837 4,830,430

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Oct
30

Strong Follow Through

Posted by bakken

Our recent cycle of successive groundhog days have temporarily ceased with solid upticks over the last 3 trading days.   Oil saw a temporary bottom around $59 a few days ago and has bounced strongly off that mark into the mid sixties.     It has also helped that Exxon-Mobil reported some jaw dropping profits of $14 billion as well as some good news from our bakken plays as listed below:

  • Brigham Exploration Company (NasdaqGS:BEXP - News) announced three high flow working interest Bakken discoveries, participation in its first Anadarko Basin horizontal Woodford shale well
  • Continental Resources (CLR) stated its third-quarter net income soared to a record of $112.4 million, or $2.65 per share, on revenue of $388.4 million which is up 135% from same quarter last year.   The news sent the stock up over 10% today
  • Basic Earth Science Systems, Inc. (Basic Earth) (OTC Bulletin Board: BSIC - News) announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to 500,000 shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock over the next 18 months.  This is quite unusual for a company of this size and signals that the mgmt of the company feels strongly that the stock is undervalued.
bakken Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG 1:03PM ET 4.74 Up 0.18 Up 4.06% 132,642 367,429
WLL 1:05PM ET 47.85 Up 6.85 Up 16.71% 1,965,892 1,342,220
SM 1:05PM ET 23.21 Up 0.92 Up 4.13% 423,417 1,271,550
MDU 1:05PM ET 18.55 Up 0.85 Up 4.80% 764,356 1,442,780
GEOI 1:04PM ET 12.82 Up 0.41 Up 3.30% 41,570 130,341
BSIC.OB 12:02PM ET 0.90 Up 0.08 Up 9.76% 2,500 38,635.9
WSEG.OB 9:52AM ET 0.12 Up 0.01 Up 9.09% 3,700 573,402
CLR 1:05PM ET 28.40 Up 2.76 Up 10.76% 1,256,084 2,248,770
BEXP 1:05PM ET 6.99 Up 0.55 Up 8.54% 433,091 1,027,970
KDKN.OB 12:30PM ET 0.60 Up 0.08 Up 15.38% 640,041 95,348.4
KOG 1:02PM ET 0.71 Up 0.00 Up 0.11% 181,168 1,038,580
EOG 1:05PM ET 75.01 Up 2.43 Up 3.35% 2,558,985 4,877,390

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