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Archive for the ‘Analyst Tidbits’ Category

Aug
19

Strong Bakken buying today on dollar weakness

Posted by bakken

Has it gotten to the point that we hope that hurricanes will form in the Gulf Coast to prop up our oil stocks? Sadly enough, for many, it definitely has, although they will state they aren’t looking for any human losses, just some disruption in supply. Today, tropical disturbance Fay missed oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, but shareholders of Bakken stocks were probably pleased that a weak dollar combined with an uptick in heating oil buoyed our plays today. Among the big gainers today were 2 of the “pure plays” in the group Continental Resources (CLR) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL) which were both up more than 5%. In addition, Venezuela’s Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez indicated that it’s may propose an oil production cut at the next OPEC meeting if crude prices decline further. The good news for Bakken investors is that oil does appear to be oversold. For example, the chart below indicates that the Energy SPDR (XLE) is currently trading below its 20,100 & 200 Day Moving Averages and trading close to its lower Bollinger Band. Volatility, however will continue to reign and expect to see swings of $4 and up within a matter of hours as competing forces battle to determine the long term trend of oil.

Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
WLL 4:01PM ET 89.64 Up 5.99 Up 7.16% 744,910 1,180,390
MDU 4:02PM ET 31.58 Up 0.11 Up 0.35% 564,635 1,125,130
SM 4:01PM ET 42.99 Up 1.79 Up 4.34% 919,588 1,444,730
CLR 4:04PM ET 47.65 Up 4.11 Up 9.44% 2,383,706 1,871,040
EOG 4:02PM ET 99.88 Up 5.14 Up 5.43% 4,166,094 3,844,690
NOG 4:00PM ET 7.39 Up 0.05 Up 0.68% 311,832 641,200
KOG 4:00PM ET 3.03 Up 0.13 Up 4.48% 758,228 1,459,890
KDKN.OB 3:59PM ET 1.65 Down 0.15 Down 8.28% 35,126 195,115
BSIC.OB 2:26PM ET 1.60 Down 0.05 Down 3.03% 20,993 78,292.3
XTO 4:01PM ET 46.80 Up 1.35 Up 2.97% 15,414,211 11,663,700

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Jul
01

Saint Marys Land & Exploration (SM) – Buying opportunity?

Posted by bakkenexpert
Today one of the 2nd (or possibly 3rd Tier) Analysts, Stanford Research downgraded Saint Mary’s Land & Exploration sending the stock down 3-5% in morning trading. The shaky rationale was as follows:

Stanford Research downgrades SM to Hold from Buy on valuation saying that the co has not yet established an internal production growth outlook comparable to the 10% or so offered by several companies in the E&P peer group

This is somewhat embarrassing to use as an excuse to downgrade. In my humble opinion, this basically translates as “Stanford is not smart enough to project SM earnings and growth based on recent developments and needs and abundance of data points so that they don’t have to do any work” I think the next quarter will be solid for Saint Mary’s due to the following: 1) Oil and gas prices are over 20% higher than the previous quarter 2) SM has around 5 active wells in Bakken region and are evaluating up to 40 more sites (see confidential well list below) 3) Hedging comprises about 50% of their 2008 production but is expected to drop off in 2009 and even moreso in 2010. This can only impact their EPS positively as long as oil stays around $115-120 per bbl. 4) SM bought back over 2 million shares in Q1 and more is expected this quarter If some of the upcoming Bakken wells are decent producers and there is growth in other regions such as Rocky Mountain and ArkLaTex, there is no reason 2009 earnings are not north of $6.50 – 7 per share yielding a forward PE below 10.

ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY LINDVIG 1-11HR SESE 11-T153N-R101W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY BEAR DEN FEDERAL 10-25HR NWSE 25-T149N-R96W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY WRRMU 21-33HR NENW 33-T145N-R101W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY ELLETSON 33-1HR NWSE 1-T150N-R104W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY JOSODEN 11-15HR NWNW 15-T142N-R97W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY GRESZ 11-33HR NWNW 33-T143N-R98W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY RYSTEDT 4-11H NWNW 11-T158N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY CLARK 16-27H SESE 27-T159N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY S.M. CLARK 4-6H LOT 4 6-T158N-R91W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY NICKOLS TRUST 16-28H SESE 28-T159N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY LEDENE 4-9H NWNW 9-T158N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY LEDENE 16-3H SESE 3-T158N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY HOLSTROM 16-4H SESE 4-T158N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY LUCY 4-12H NWNW 12-T158N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY MESKER 4-18H LOT 1 18-T158N-R91W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY ANDERSON 4-35H NWNW 35-T159N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY CLARK 16-15H SESE 15-T158N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY HEGSTAD 4-34H NWNW 34-T159N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY NICKOLS TRUST 4-19H NWNW 19-T159N-R91W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY LEDENE 16-22H SESE 22-T159N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY NICKOLS TRUST 16-24H SESE 24-T159N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY MESKER 4-7H LOT 1 7-T158N-R91W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY D. CLARK 4-23H NWNW 23-T159N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY KAPUSTA 16-30H SESE 30-T158N-R91W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY EDWARDS 4-15H NWNW 15-T159N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY DOUTS 4-7H NWNW 7-T159N-R93W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY S. M. CLARK 4-31H LOT 1 31-T159N-R91W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY FOOTH 4-13H NWNW 13-T158N-R92W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY RYSTEDT 16-13H SESE 13-T159N-R94W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY HOIBY 16-19H SESE 19-T159N-R93W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY BLOMQUIST 4-12H NWNW 12-T159N-R94W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY JENSEN 16-17H SESE 17-T159N-R93W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY ABRUZZI TRUST 16-5H SESE 5-T159N-R93W
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION COMPANY MOODY 16-1H SESE 1-T159N-R94W

Current Operations Map of Saint Marys Land & Exploration (SM)
Click here for information on Williston Basin! Click here for information on Permian Basin! Click here for information on Mid-Continent Region! Click here for information on Arklatex Region! Click here for information on Gulf Coast Region! Click here for information on Greater Green River Basin! Click here for information on Mid-Continent Region! Click here for information on Wind River Basin! Click here for information on Hanging Woman and Powder River Basins!

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