Archive for August, 2008
Aug
28
Posted by bakkenexpert
Below are some recent questions via email I’d thought I’d share:
Q: What happened to WSEG, It has gone down quite a bit to .19 since you blogged about it. Is it worth buying here?
A: I still believe WSEG could be a 10 bagger although the potential exists for it to gravitate to under .10 cents if no positive developments occur in the next 12 months. I am a buyer at .19 but this should be a tiny portion of any portfolio (< 5%). Continue to expect volatility in this stock.
_______________________________________________________________
Q: What about some info on non E&P companies that may benefit from the Bakken?
A: We are actively looking at this now and should have a blog entry or two shortly. There are a number of ancillary companies such as transportation and drillers that could benefit from the bakken
_________________________________________________________________
Q: What are your favorite picks now that oil has dropped quite a bit
A: SM & CLR look very attractive under $50. For something a little risker, NOG looks good under $8.
________________________________________________________________________
Q: Could you please tell me what “confidential” oil well means? I have one that is listed on your site, and would like to understand more about the classification.
A: When an oil company is exploring in a new territory they have the option to list the well as confidential (also commonly known in the industry as a “tight hole”) and release limited data on the well; however, by state law, they must release full data to the state regulatory agency overseeing the operation after a period of two years.
Related posts
Aug
28
Posted by bakkenexpert
The latest Active Drilling Report shows that the number of Active Drilling Rigs has increased by 4 over the last report. Continental is still far and away the leader with 18% of all Active Drilling Rigs with Marathon, Hess and EOG running a distant second. It is also interesting to note that Nabors is far and away the leader in terms of the rig provider with more than 30 rigs in the region. This is still a tiny percentage of Nabors overall rigs but it is possible that in 2-3 years Nabors could be an ancillary Bakken play with over 100 rigs in the region.

| Rig |
Operator |
Well Name and Number |
| NABORS 49 |
BRIGHAM OIL & GAS LP |
ADIX 25 1-H |
| NABORS 59 |
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
FOX TAIL 31-10H |
| PRECISION 645 |
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
AUDUBON 41-27H |
| NABORS 688 |
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
HAWKEYE 41-11H |
| NABORS 177 |
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
RINK 24-8H |
| NABORS 52 |
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO |
MIDNIGHT RUN 41-1H |
| CYCLONE 26 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
HEGGE 43-36 WSW |
| CYCLONE 9 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
FISCHER 11-16SH |
| CYCLONE 22 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
PAMELA 13-23SH |
| CYCLONE 27 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
LOWE 44-9SH |
| CYCLONE 18 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
GRAHAM 43-35SH |
| PATTERSON 136 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
VIOLA 1-7H |
| CYCLONE 2 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
SHONNA 1-15H |
| PATTERSON 82 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
MORRIS 1-23H |
| CYCLONE 19 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
SLOAN 1-17H |
| CYCLONE 10 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
MITTLESTADT 1-20H |
| CYCLONE 23 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
OMLID 1-7 H |
| PATTERSON 180 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
KIRKLAND 1-33H |
| NABORS 42 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
ANDREW 24-32NH |
| CYCLONE 21 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
MALCOM 1-29H |
| TRINIDAD 36 |
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES |
MARLENE 1-10H |
| NABORS 277 |
ENCORE OPERATING LP |
CHARLSON 14X-35H |
| CYCLONE 25 |
ENCORE OPERATING LP |
MCCOY 44-36H |
| NABORS 149 |
EOG RESOURCES INC |
BURKE 1-34H |
| PIONEER 56 |
EOG RESOURCES INC |
AUSTIN 19-30H |
| ENSIGN 67 |
EOG RESOURCES INC |
AUSTIN 15-17H |
| ENSIGN 88 |
EOG RESOURCES INC |
WAYZETTA 21-19H |
| NABORS 161 |
EOG RESOURCES INC |
WAYZETTA 6-12H |
| NABORS 337 |
EOG RESOURCES INC |
PARSHALL 8-24H |
| PIONEER 57 |
EOG RESOURCES INC |
PARSHALL 9-30H |
| NABORS 358 |
FIDELITY EXPL & PROD CO |
WEINMANN 11-28H |
| NABORS 455 |
FIDELITY EXPL & PROD CO |
CARTER MATTHEW 13-24H |
| NABORS 417 |
FIDELITY EXPL & PROD CO |
REUM 11-32H |
| ENSIGN 24 |
HEADINGTON OIL CO LLC |
ALKALI CREEK 44X-10 |
| NABORS 560 |
HEADINGTON OIL CO LLC |
DEANGELIS 41X-21 |
| NABORS 558 |
HELIS OIL & GAS CO. LLC |
STATE 4-36H |
| NABORS 272 |
HESS CORPORATION |
AV-WRIGLEY-163-94- 0607H-1 |
| NABORS 165 |
HESS CORPORATION |
BB-RICE-150-95- 0718H-1 |
| NABORS 556 |
HESS CORPORATION |
EN-CVANCARA-155-93- 1522H-1 |
| H & P 241 |
HESS CORPORATION |
RS-R AADNES-157-91- 2726H-1 |
| H & P 179 |
HESS CORPORATION |
RS-AADNES-157-91- 2829H-1 |
| NABORS 742 |
HESS CORPORATION |
ST-ANDES-151-89- 2413H-1 |
| NABORS 557 |
HESS CORPORATION |
BL-OLSON-155-96- 1003H-1 |
| NABORS 140 |
HUNT OIL COMPANY |
ERICKSON 1-7H |
| BRONCO 20 |
HUNT OIL COMPANY |
KULLAND 1-30H |
| NABORS 684 |
LUFF EXPLORATION CO |
SANDY WHITE P-26H |
| H & P 258 |
MARATHON OIL CO |
OSCAR STOHLER 41-4H |
| H & P 255 |
MARATHON OIL CO |
T. KUPPER 14-11H |
| H & P 259 |
MARATHON OIL CO |
STROMMEN 14-8H |
| NABORS 44 |
MARATHON OIL CO |
BOB TUHY 44-19H |
| PATTERSON 183 |
MARATHON OIL CO |
STEFFAN 14-22H |
| H & P 257 |
MARATHON OIL CO |
LARRY REPP 31-16H |
| H & P 256 |
MARATHON OIL CO |
MARK SANDSTROM 14-32H |
| CYCLONE 20 |
MUREX PETROLEUM CORP |
CHANDLER JAMES 25-36H |
| RED HAWK 351 |
MUREX PETROLEUM CORP |
MRP 19-4 |
| KEY 439 |
MUREX PETROLEUM CORP |
SUSAN KAYE 6-7H |
| NABORS 419 |
NEWFIELD PROD CO |
ROLFSRUD 1-32H |
| BRONCO 28 |
OASIS PETRO NO AMER |
ERIE 44-19H |
| H & P 172 |
PANTHER ENERGY CO LLC |
WIL E. COYOTE 9-2H |
| PATTERSON 490 |
PEAK NO DAK LLC |
FREDERICKS 5-11H |
| ENSIGN 93 |
PETRO HUNT LLC |
PHELPS MINERAL TRUST 7B-2-1H |
| PATTERSON 462 |
PRIMA EXPLORATION INC |
PARADOX 34-31H |
| RED HAWK 354 |
SAGEBRUSH RESOURCES LLC |
LODOEN 1 |
| NABR WELL 164 |
SAGEBRUSH RESOURCES LLC |
RICE 1 |
| NABORS 152 |
SAMSON RESOURCES CO |
RINDEL 17-162-95H |
| PATTERSON 167 |
SINCLAIR OIL & GAS CO |
NELSON 1-25H |
| RED HAWK 558 |
SLAWSON EXPLORATION |
GOLDEN EYE 1-2H |
| PIONEER 44 |
SLAWSON EXPLORATION |
VOYAGER #1-28H |
| NABORS 592 |
ST MARY LAND & EXPLORATION CO |
DOUTS 4-7H |
| PARAMOUNT 2 |
SUMMIT RESOURCES INC |
ROOSEVELT FEDERAL 3-4H |
| PARAMOUNT 1 |
SUMMIT RESOURCES INC |
GAP FEDERAL 3-8H |
| PATTERSON 491 |
SUNDANCE ENERGY INC |
CHASE 21-30H |
| NABORS 182 |
TRACKER RES DEVMNT |
OLSON 20-1H |
| NABORS 267 |
TRACKER RES DEVMNT |
DRESSLER #13-1H |
| PRECISION 511 |
TRACKER RES DEVMNT |
QUILLIAM 14-1H |
| NABORS 354 |
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
LACEY 11-10H |
| GREY WOLF 520 |
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
ROGGENBUCK 11-25H |
| NABORS 527 |
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
RICHARDSON FEDERAL 11-9H |
| KEY 257 |
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
PENNINGTON 11-3H |
| NABORS 686 |
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP |
KINNOIN 11-14H |
| H & P 180 |
WINDSOR ENERGY GROUP LLC |
WHITMORE 1-7H |
| ENSIGN 46 |
XTO ENERGY INC |
SAKAKAWEA FEDERAL 13X-35R |
| ENSIGN 43 |
ZENERGY INC |
ZIMMERMAN #1 SWD |
|
|
|
| Total Rigs: 83 |
|
|
Related posts
Aug
25
Posted by bakkenexpert
It looked like it was going to be decidedly negative day for Bakken stocks today but in the afternoon, most of the losses were pared as Tropical Storm Gustav formed in the Caribbean which kept oil prices above $115. Many of our plays including WLL and CLR have gained close to 10% in the last week or so and we are hoping that the gains have staying power with the latest uptick in oil prices. Also, in the last 2 weeks major analysts have issued the following positive recommendations/upgrades on Bakken plays: The general uptrend continues to be intact and as stated before, the price of oil needs to stabilize before a longer term uptrend can be forged by our basket bakken stocks.
Company Analyst Rating
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) RBC Capital Markets Outperform
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) Bank of America Buy
EOG Resources Oppenheimer Buy
Saint Mary’s Land & Exploration Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy
| bakken |
 |
| Symbol |
Last Trade |
Change |
Volume |
Avg Vol (3m) |
| WLL |
4:02PM ET |
93.42 |
0.29 |
0.31% |
730,230 |
1,128,700 |
| MDU |
4:03PM ET |
32.06 |
0.41 |
1.26% |
661,728 |
1,110,280 |
| SM |
4:00PM ET |
42.28 |
0.33 |
0.77% |
921,540 |
1,467,120 |
| CLR |
4:02PM ET |
49.53 |
0.92 |
1.82% |
2,005,769 |
1,886,790 |
| EOG |
4:02PM ET |
102.21 |
1.43 |
1.38% |
2,470,874 |
3,853,550 |
| NOG |
4:00PM ET |
7.19 |
0.25 |
3.36% |
169,975 |
616,788 |
| KOG |
4:00PM ET |
2.98 |
0.00 |
0.00% |
717,581 |
1,377,920 |
| KDKN.OB |
3:28PM ET |
1.63 |
0.12 |
6.86% |
20,483 |
164,523 |
| BSIC.OB |
3:27PM ET |
1.76 |
0.01 |
0.57% |
7,825 |
60,198.4 |
| XTO |
4:02PM ET |
48.18 |
0.16 |
0.33% |
9,251,943 |
12,135,100 |
Related posts
Aug
19
Posted by bakken
Has it gotten to the point that we hope that hurricanes will form in the Gulf Coast to prop up our oil stocks? Sadly enough, for many, it definitely has, although they will state they aren’t looking for any human losses, just some disruption in supply. Today, tropical disturbance Fay missed oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, but shareholders of Bakken stocks were probably pleased that a weak dollar combined with an uptick in heating oil buoyed our plays today. Among the big gainers today were 2 of the “pure plays” in the group Continental Resources (CLR) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL) which were both up more than 5%. In addition, Venezuela’s Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez indicated that it’s may propose an oil production cut at the next OPEC meeting if crude prices decline further. The good news for Bakken investors is that oil does appear to be oversold. For example, the chart below indicates that the Energy SPDR (XLE) is currently trading below its 20,100 & 200 Day Moving Averages and trading close to its lower Bollinger Band. Volatility, however will continue to reign and expect to see swings of $4 and up within a matter of hours as competing forces battle to determine the long term trend of oil.

| Symbol |
Last Trade |
Change |
Volume |
Avg Vol (3m) |
| WLL |
4:01PM ET |
89.64 |
5.99 |
7.16% |
744,910 |
1,180,390 |
| MDU |
4:02PM ET |
31.58 |
0.11 |
0.35% |
564,635 |
1,125,130 |
| SM |
4:01PM ET |
42.99 |
1.79 |
4.34% |
919,588 |
1,444,730 |
| CLR |
4:04PM ET |
47.65 |
4.11 |
9.44% |
2,383,706 |
1,871,040 |
| EOG |
4:02PM ET |
99.88 |
5.14 |
5.43% |
4,166,094 |
3,844,690 |
| NOG |
4:00PM ET |
7.39 |
0.05 |
0.68% |
311,832 |
641,200 |
| KOG |
4:00PM ET |
3.03 |
0.13 |
4.48% |
758,228 |
1,459,890 |
| KDKN.OB |
3:59PM ET |
1.65 |
0.15 |
8.28% |
35,126 |
195,115 |
| BSIC.OB |
2:26PM ET |
1.60 |
0.05 |
3.03% |
20,993 |
78,292.3 |
| XTO |
4:01PM ET |
46.80 |
1.35 |
2.97% |
15,414,211 |
11,663,700 |
Related posts
Aug
14
Posted by bakkenexpert
Are we still looking for the bottom in oil? Trading has been very choppy over the last 10 trading days for our bakken plays. At this point, we are still waiting for this elusive bottom and only then can we form a long term base. Three months ago, the conflict between Georgia and Russia would have elevated oil prices by $5-10 a barrel due to speculation of potential disruption around the BTC-pipeline in southern Georgia. These days, however, the speculative nature has dissipated and there is no jump in oil as the overall downward pressure is still there with prices straddling $114 per bbl with the latest gasoline inventory data released today. The downtrend has seemingly beaten down bakken stocks disproportionately as much of the gains that were added in June and July are gone. Overall though, bakken stocks are more or less now tracking with the price of oil and we are not going to see stabilization until oil settles in a $10 trading range for a sustained period of at least 1 month. If we look at Continental Resources (CLR), for example, it had a huge runup after the USGS reported the positive oil reserve data in the bakken region, but the bottom fell out in late July and the sector experienced multiple contraction and eventually CLR converged toward the price performance of XLE (an ETF of major oil companies) as shown below. The good news is that our bakken plays really look like good values here but that is predicated on oil staying above $110 per barrel. If we see significant price erosion to $80 per barrel, then we could see another 25-30% haircut from current levels.

| bakken |
 |
| Symbol |
Last Trade |
Change |
Volume |
Avg Vol (3m) |
| WLL |
1:26PM ET |
85.65 |
2.51 |
2.85% |
402,560 |
1,179,810 |
| MDU |
1:26PM ET |
31.50 |
0.10 |
0.32% |
401,060 |
1,132,000 |
| SM |
1:25PM ET |
41.48 |
1.66 |
3.85% |
1,227,702 |
1,431,130 |
| CLR |
1:26PM ET |
45.49 |
2.97 |
6.13% |
1,139,717 |
1,836,360 |
| EOG |
1:26PM ET |
96.96 |
2.62 |
2.63% |
1,971,652 |
3,824,920 |
| NOG |
1:26PM ET |
8.25 |
0.15 |
1.85% |
435,275 |
633,691 |
| KOG |
1:26PM ET |
2.90 |
0.24 |
7.64% |
395,706 |
1,440,860 |
| KDKN.OB |
1:18PM ET |
1.61 |
0.00 |
0.00% |
15,800 |
222,322 |
| BSIC.OB |
1:21PM ET |
1.68 |
0.28 |
20.00% |
148,844 |
83,818.5 |
| XTO |
1:26PM ET |
45.64 |
0.78 |
1.68% |
7,397,819 |
11,343,400 |
Related posts