Investment insight on the bakken landscape

     Bakken Stocks

 

 

May
14

Stability continues in oil


Posted by bakkenexpert

Oil is hovering around $58 per barrel and our stocks mentioned in our last post, WLL and CLR are both up roughly 50%.    The strategy of writing covered calls still appears to be valid and we don’t expect another implosion in oil prices in the next few months as the summer driving season is around the corner.  We are steering clear of BEXP in the short term due to the large hedging losses of over $100 million that they reported today as well as share dilution with a public offering of 30 million shares.   The shares are going to be under pressure in the short term.    Goldman Sachs expects oil to drift to $45-50 per barrel in the short term and then reverse course and hit $65 in the medium term.    This is somewhat in line with my thinking as I expect oil to be rangebound between $50 and $70 for the remainder of this year.    We are seeing trends with some of the smaller players issuing stock to raise capital and I think that will probably continue and provide some downward pressure going forward.

NOG 10:17AM ET 5.91 Up 0.10 Up 1.72% 62,296 227,463
WLL 10:22AM ET 37.64 Down 0.74 Down 1.93% 243,728 1,601,390
SM 10:22AM ET 19.86 Down 0.01 Down 0.05% 64,633 1,315,190
EOG 10:22AM ET 70.35 Up 0.03 Up 0.04% 415,862 4,344,980
CLR 10:23AM ET 25.45 Down 0.42 Down 1.62% 247,788 1,359,710
MDU 10:22AM ET 16.84 Down 0.16 Down 0.94% 217,253 1,283,750
GEOI 10:18AM ET 7.57 Down 0.03 Down 0.39% 2,612 45,954.8
BSIC.OB May 13 0.79 0.00 0.00% 0 38,635.9
WSEG.OB 9:30AM ET 0.038 Up 0.001 Up 2.70% 17,000 55,187.1
KDKN.OB 9:43AM ET 0.225 0.00 0.00% 31,300 100,577
BEXP 10:22AM ET 2.87 Down 0.62 Down 17.77% 800,613 677,027
KOG 10:23AM ET 0.93 Down 0.15 Down 13.89% 1,031,881 1,195,120

Related posts


Tags:

Feb
27

Bakken strategy


Posted by bakkenexpert

It seems that oil has bottomed and in some strange way may actually turn out to be a flight to quality amidst the financial turmoil that has overwhelmed the markets.   We see that XLE has massive support at 40 and oil is currently rangebound between 30 and 40.     Gas at the pump bottomed around 1.60 and 1.70 and now is climbing back above $2 in many parts of the country.   Our Bakken plays have also been quite rangebound with most in a 10% trading range.    The pure plays are off about 80% from their highs and downside from here is another 20% from current levels unless we enter a full on recession.  I am still content going long WLL or  CLR and selling monthly out of the money calls to hedge my trade.  This way I can earn 5%+ per month regardless of what the stock does by selling these calls.   Of course,  if these stocks are cut in half due to futher deterioration,  it will take a while to get your money back!   Good luck

Symbol Last Trade P/E Pct from Yr High Short Ratio
NOG Feb 26 2.73 N/A Down 83.35% 11.1
WLL Feb 26 23.75 4.00 Down 78.87% 1.6
SM Feb 26 13.46 9.28 Down 79.48% 4
MDU Feb 26 15.16 9.51 Down 57.10% 1.3
GEOI Feb 26 6.19 4.77 Down 78.71% 12.7
BSIC.OB Feb 26 0.61 7.92 Down 79.93% N/A
WSEG.OB Feb 26 0.0330 N/A N/A% -
CLR Feb 26 17.31 7.83 Down 79.35% 3.9
BEXP Feb 26 1.33 3.05 Down 92.73% 5.1
KDKN.OB Feb 26 0.37 N/A Down 89.97% -
KOG Feb 26 0.2506 N/A Down 95.44% 3
EOG Feb 26 51.41 5.29 Down 64.54% 1.3

Related posts


Tags:

Feb
03

Time has passed but nothing has changed


Posted by bakken

About a month has passed and not much has changed with our Bakken plays.  Oil is still around the $40 per barrel mark and any increase seems to be tempered by the doldrums of the dow which is in a trading range between 7800-8800 over the last month.   Today MDU reported a fourth-quarter loss on Tuesday, partly due to a non-cash charge related to lower energy prices at its natural gas and oil operations. The net loss was $11.4 million, or 6 cents per share.   The stock was off 5% in early trading.   In addition, BP,  a 130 billion dollar oil giant, saw a $3.3 billion dollar loss due to the precipitous drop in oil prices.   If the big players are seeing this bad an effect from falling oil,  we should expect our bakken plays to report losses over the next few weeks as companies report.    We can only hope that these losses are already priced into the shares.  Whiting Petroleum had a share offering that raised about $200 million about a week ago which sent the shares down more than 30% but it may be attractive entry point around $27 as it should have the cash to weather the storm.

Good luck to all!

Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG 10:19AM ET 3.04 0.00 0.00% 18,273 226,852
WLL 10:19AM ET 28.450001 Down 0.179998 Down 0.63% 381,272 1,654,570
SM 10:19AM ET 19.27 Up 0.28 Up 1.47% 56,722 900,661
MDU 10:19AM ET 18.82 Down 1.11 Down 5.57% 415,591 1,349,880
GEOI 10:19AM ET 7.39 Up 0.03 Up 0.41% 4,824 76,396.8
BSIC.OB Feb 2 0.91 0.00 0.00% 0 38,635.9
WSEG.OB 10:02AM ET 0.059 Down 0.001 Down 1.67% 9,200 124,269
CLR 10:19AM ET 20.50 Up 0.10 Up 0.49% 138,567 1,525,500
BEXP 10:19AM ET 2.38 Up 0.04 Up 1.71% 155,535 746,571
KDKN.OB 10:09AM ET 0.495 0.00 0.00% 700,500 95,348.4
KOG 10:17AM ET 0.2999 Down 0.0001 Down 0.03% 257,438 690,510
EOG 10:19AM ET 66.91 Up 0.17 Up 0.25% 525,409 4,191,610

Related posts


Tags:

Jan
03

Hoping for a happy new year


Posted by bakkenexpert

The last trading day of the year led to modest gains but did not erase the painful 2008 that most bakken investors experienced.   The vast majority of our bakken plays were down 70-80% on the year as oil plummeted from $147 per barrel down to $40.    Pressure will continue to be exerted on the sector until oil can rebound to the $60-70 range.    In 2009, if oil stays at current levels, there will be smaller players that will file Chapter 11 because  they can’t raise the necessary capital and don’t have the cost structure to make money at $40 oil.    We ended the year with 80 active drilling rigs in the bakken region.   About 20-30% fewer than expected earlier in the year.     Some notable companies will deliver earnings in January and at that time we will get a clearer picture of how the precipticous drop in oil affected the bottom line.

bakken Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG Dec 31 2.60 Up 0.22 Up 9.24% 356,624 270,654
WLL Dec 31 33.46 Up 1.41 Up 4.40% 741,065 1,475,580
SM Dec 31 20.31 Up 0.59 Up 2.99% 764,286 1,020,350
MDU Dec 31 21.58 Up 0.23 Up 1.08% 912,046 1,675,130
GEOI Dec 31 8.69 Up 0.11 Up 1.28% 53,428 104,125
BSIC.OB Dec 31 0.6001 Down 0.0299 Down 4.75% 19,200 38,635.9
WSEG.OB Dec 31 0.021 Up 0.002 Up 10.53% 453,230 142,440
CLR Dec 31 20.71 Up 0.09 Up 0.44% 960,317 1,865,200
BEXP Dec 31 3.20 Up 0.07 Up 2.24% 599,393 890,132
KDKN.OB Dec 31 0.60 Up 0.03 Up 5.26% 110,160 95,348.4
KOG Dec 31 0.31 Up 0.02 Up 5.08% 2,121,081 849,023
EOG Dec 31 66.58 Up 0.76 Up 1.15% 2,282,313 4,796,620

Related posts


Tags:

Dec
18

Trying to hang on


Posted by bakkenexpert

Our bakken plays have held on fairly well considering oil is still drifting towards $30 per barrel.   This is partly because there is hope that the OPEC cuts of 2 million barrels per day will cause a mid term reversal in the price of crude over the next few months.   Our earlier call on CLR looks pretty good with the stock up 33% (from $15 to $20) in the last few days.    We will consider getting into WLL if it goes below 30 as well.

bakken Edit
Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol (3m)
NOG 10:00AM ET 3.17 Down 0.17 Down 5.09% 34,216 284,335
WLL 10:00AM ET 32.76 Down 2.37 Down 6.75% 145,488 1,501,340
SM 10:00AM ET 19.93 Down 0.82 Down 3.95% 36,350 1,065,490
MDU 10:00AM ET 21.00 Down 0.36 Down 1.69% 215,711 1,718,310
GEOI 10:00AM ET 7.4596 Down 0.1304 Down 1.72% 14,531 113,672
BSIC.OB 9:53AM ET 0.646 Down 0.054 Down 7.71% 2,500 38,635.9
WSEG.OB 9:44AM ET 0.03 Down 0.01 Down 14.29% 65,850 141,765
CLR 10:00AM ET 19.34 Down 1.27 Down 6.16% 128,363 2,021,960
BEXP 10:00AM ET 3.82 Down 0.15 Down 3.78% 61,656 956,982
KDKN.OB 9:59AM ET 0.60 Down 0.05 Down 7.69% 4,400 95,348.4
KOG 10:00AM ET 0.3701 Up 0.0001 Up 0.03% 47,100 894,449
EOG 10:00AM ET 67.38 Down 2.22 Down 3.19% 328,205 5,068,030

Related posts


Tags:



Powered By Wordpress - Theme Provided By Free Wordpress Templates - Auto Loans